Rasmussen & Gallup: What they are not saying
What the latest Rasmussen & Gallup Polls are saying & NOT saying.
Gallup is reporting two turnout scenarios among likely voters to the registered voter preferences it has been publishing since March. Of these registered voters (46R-43D) the two Gallup models show this: Likely voters (low turnout model): 56R-39D and Likely voters (high turnout model): 53R-41D. Rasmussen shows that 47% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% prefer the Democrat. That’s a eight- point differential.
The 17 and 12 differential from Gallup’s high turnout to low turnout models is confirmation of a massive voter revolt – a SMACKDOWN on November 2. One could argue, rightfully so, to ignore these numbers—they bounce all over the place, often without rhyme or reason. And, often with bias. Polls are lagging indicators not leading indicators. As an aside, we need to fight this down to the wire. If it’s not close, they can’t cheat. But, for conversation purposes, consider this…
For Rasmussen, a tie in the generic ballot means gains for the GOP; a small lead in the generic ballot means the GOP wins the House and the Senate is close. But, an eight-point margin in the generic ballot means the Dem’s are manning the lifeboats. Last weeks +3 was an outlier. Others in the last few days include CNN +7, and CBS +8… Those have a history of bias, and Rasmussen actually gives them credence.
In blowout elections, it always tightens a few weeks before the election. And then the lead grows to its largest a week or two out. But I am now beginning to feel that the Dem’s are going to get obliterated. Why you ask? I believe the polls are missing the boat here. Many are predicting record turnouts. Republicans are showing multiple digit wins in most cases. Even Dem’s are beginning to point fingers and turn on them.
For Gallup – they have ‘high and low’ likely voter turnout models that they’ve been tracking the past two weeks. The problem with these Gallup numbers is that they are either low turnout based (on both sides) or high turnout based (on both sides). I see it being a split, which they can’t really predict, and that’s high turnout on the ‘R’ side and low turnout on the ‘D’ side. That’s the reality that Gallup is failing to factor in to their numbers. The only turnout models Gallup has published are two: High and Low. High is GOP +12. Low is GOP +17. Evenly split turnout. That is not reality.
But, I’m also arguing that the ‘’high turnout’’ estimate is likely too low, if so, the RATS are going to take a history-making shellacking. I believe the conservative turnout will be truly STUNNING. Since the ‘enthusiasm gap’ is so much in favor of the GOP, the low-turnout model assumes that the GOP and independent voters will turn out in large numbers, but the Dem’s will not. The high-turnout model assumes all three groups will turn out in numbers higher than usual for a midterm election. Since the independents are going for the GOP by almost 2-1, the Dem’s cannot make up the difference even with a large turnout of their base, though they may be able to save a few threatened seats with a large enough turnout.
Unaffiliated voters strongly favored Democrats in 2006 and strongly favor Republicans this year. In 2010, 32% of the electorate will be independents. Whether Gallup Or Rasmussen, independents, in poll after poll, are breaking almost 2-1 in favor of the GOP. This is a massive shift from Dem’s to Independents and Independents to Pub’s. The Cook Report is listing 90 seats in contention, up from 81, going from D to R.
As a fun fact to notice on election night, if we start seeing some surprises in the Eastern states – supposedly safe Dem’s losing by significant margins, etc – then I think the wave will gather momentum as it travels West. Dem’s in the Western states will get discouraged as they start to hear the news from back east, and I think a lot will not bother to go to the polls. But we cannot count on that!
The MSM is promoting a myth that the election is ‘closing rapidly’. This is what they did when Mondale and Dukakis were getting creamed too. Many sensed it might be big in 1994 because of the anger on talk radio, especially the independent shows and among Perot voters. But the media never said a thing about a landslide. You knew they were off balance.
Clinton had raised taxes, failed at government health care, but most importantly had made two attacks on firearm ownership. He had governed like a doctrinaire liberal after running as a “New Democrat.” Sound familiar? The media went hysterical on election night, refusing to report the number of seats won by the GOP and using the word “takeover” again and again. It was hilarious watching Bernard Shaw and Judy Woodruff engaging in numerous moments of silence and CNN ending up just going to commercial.
Don’t be surprised if both Rasmussen and Gallup tighten. I’d be surprised if they don’t. I do, however, think that before the election the Pubs will be at +4 to +8 on the generic ballot. At the very least we can say, the RATS are running out of time…that is a sweet thing. But every conservative should get 20 people to the polls. We ought not be overconfident. If at all possible, please offer to help the older, senior Republicans in your neighborhood get to the polls on November 2nd. We need a massive turnout, and I believe we’ll get one. The Republican Party has a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory; but maybe not this time. Stay vigilant and take nothing for granted.
There are no lifeboats for the Dem’s except cheating. In this post WWII era, we have NEVER seen numbers like this. A 13 to 18 point spread and there will be some killer parties on Nov. 2. The only issue after the election will be the lame ducks and the filibustering Senate covering for the Present. This is why O’Donnell and Raese are so important in Delaware and West Virginia respectively. They are seated immediately. Looking forward, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Jersey don’t seem as Dem friendly as they once did. But for now, a 17% edge is no reason to stay home in overconfidence. It’s a reason to stomp the Democrat’s into the ground like a cockroach.